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Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MD 20705-2350
Corresponding author: H. D. Norman; e-mail: dnorman{at}aipl.arsusda.gov.
| ABSTRACT |
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500 daughters were of interest because of the high precision of evaluations and recent activity. Tailored PTA of those bulls had more uniformity across years in mean records per daughter than did official USDA PTA. Standard deviation of differences in PTA1, PTA1,2, and PTA1,2,3 for milk between evaluation years 1996 and 1997 were 28, 28, and 27 kg compared with 63 kg for official evaluations; similarly, between 1996 and 1999, SD were 36, 32, and 32 kg compared with 80 kg. Results suggested that a modification to the current evaluation model to account for maturity rate should reduce fluctuations in individual bull PTA across time and may improve accuracy of evaluations.
Key Words: genetic evaluation maturity rate milk yield parity
Abbreviation key: PTA1 = PTA based on first-parity records, PTA1,2 = PTA based on first- and second-parity records, PTA1,2,3 = PTA based on first-, second-, and third-parity records, PTA2 = PTA for second-parity lactation, PTA3 = PTA for third-parity lactation.
| INTRODUCTION |
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Including information from multiple parities (often the first 3 or 5) in genetic evaluations has increased over the last 2 decades and is now standard practice for most countries that provide national evaluations to the International Bull Evaluation Service (2005). Pressure from producers provided some impetus to include more than single-parity yield, along with a desire by evaluation centers to use animal models to evaluate males and females together.
Cassell and McDaniel (1983) reviewed the literature on the value of later records in bull evaluations. Cassell et al. (1983) found that the standard deviation (SD) of the differences between first and later genetic evaluations of bulls was 58% as large as the SD of genetic differences among bulls. Later, Cassell et al. (1985) illustrated the probable influence of culling by simulating lactation records, imposing culling, and calculating evaluations based on various alternatives. Abdallah and McDaniel (2002) examined the changes in PTA from first to later lactation using USDA evaluations at different dates. Because of ongoing changes in evaluation methods across time and the challenge to match field evaluations with the desired daughters and records for the comparison of interest, conclusions using this approach were limited and somewhat difficult to interpret. Abdallah and McDaniel reported that correlated genetic effects are probably needed for first and later parities in the genetic evaluation model to remove the instability across time.
When later-parity yields are included in genetic evaluations, one of two assumptions is made: 1) yields from different parities are measures of the same trait; i.e., repeated measures in a single-trait evaluation, or 2) yields from different parities represent correlated traits in a multiple-trait evaluation. Genetic correlations less than unity indicate that genetic control for later parities is partially independent of that for first parity. Because the repeatability model assumes genetic correlations of 1.0 between all parities, it may produce results that are less desirable than alternative choices if those correlations are <1.0.
Modeling separate predictions for individual parities or simply for first and later parities is becoming more frequent and is done in several countries (International Bull Evaluation Service, 2005). The advantage of doing so depends on how distant the genetic correlations among parities are from 1.0. Table 1
shows recent estimates of genetic correlations for milk yield among the first 3 parities in 10 countries. Results ranged from 0.68 to 0.83 for Canadian Holsteins to 0.94 to 0.99 for Danish Jerseys. The differences among estimates most likely result from differences in estimation methods rather than from large differences in population parameters as evidenced by more similar estimates during the 1960s and 1970s than in recent years and lower estimates from random regression methods. Strandberg (1991) summarized earlier literature estimates of genetic correlations between parities for milk yield and found they averaged 0.81 between first and second parity, 0.77 between first and third, and 0.89 between second and third.
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Each set of bull daughters provides a sample of the genes of their sire, and the daughters added in each subsequent evaluation received either a superior or an inferior Mendelian sample compared with expectation. Changes in bull evaluations across time occur when 1) additional daughters calve and are included, 2) lactations are added from later parities on the same daughters, and 3) in-progress records obtain more DIM. All 3 occurrences also increase PTA reliability. A bull PTA also can change if information from a bulls daughter is deleted because of the discovery of a pedigree error; however, such changes lower computed PTA reliability. Despite the lower computed reliability, the evaluations generally should be more accurate if erroneous data are removed. A pedigree correction influences more than a single sires evaluation. Although the frequency of pedigree change is low, the impact of such changes sometimes is evident when little new daughter information is added for a sire.
The preponderance of daughter information in evaluations for bulls that start to add second-crop daughters shifts from later- to first-parity records. Subsequently, the percentage of daughters with later-parity records increases. The impact on bull PTA of such shifts when using a single-trait evaluation model has seldom, if ever, been examined. If the model fits the data well, changes in subsequent evaluations are a function of the increase in reliability; therefore, bull evaluations with high reliabilities should be more stable than those with lower reliabilities. However, several studies (Cassell et al., 1985; Powell and Norman, 2001; Powell et al., 2004) revealed that observed changes exceeded those expected. Changes in evaluations that were larger than expected could be attributed to a few bulls with daughters that deviate considerably from a typical response to aging (maturity rate) and that had shifts in the percentage of daughters with later-parity records. The change could be substantial in conjunction with a minimal increase in reliability. Changes across time due to lack of fit of the evaluation model would be most apparent for high-reliability evaluations because of smaller changes from Mendelian sampling.
The PTA of a bull that is genetically average for maturity rate is not expected to change greatly when additional information becomes available for lactations for later parities of daughters. However, bulls that are genetically extreme for maturity rate are expected to have the largest PTA changes when their evaluations include later-parity information.
If genetic differences in maturity rate of daughters have a large impact on ranking of bulls, a modification of the evaluation model may be needed to treat yield from different parities as different traits. Such a modification could reduce variation in evaluations across time, thereby raising breeder confidence that released evaluations were reliable estimates of the true genetic merit of bulls.
The primary objective of this study was to determine if bulls differ in maturity rate of daughters. A secondary purpose was to determine whether differences in maturity rate affected bull rankings by the USDA-DHIA animal model over time.
| MATERIALS AND METHODS |
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Genetic evaluations were examined for bulls that had
10,
20,
50,
100,
200, or
500 daughters with milk records for all 3 parities. To focus on bulls with considerable daughter activity, i.e., adding progeny information between 1996 and 1999, separate examinations were completed for those bulls born after 1984.
Calculation of Bull PTA for Milk Yield by Parity
Three types of PTA for milk yield were calculated for each bull using the current USDA-DHIA animal model evaluation system (Wiggans and VanRaden, 1989) and records of the bulls daughters: 1) PTA based on first-parity records (PTA1); 2) PTA based on first- and second-parity records (PTA1,2); and 3) PTA based on first-, second-, and third-parity records (PTA1,2,3). Those 3 types of PTA are referred to as tailored because the evaluations were customized to reveal the impact of maturity rate. If PTA had been calculated with records only from individual parities (e.g., second without first and third), PTA based on second-parity (PTA2) or third-parity (PTA3) records would have been biased because cows with high milk yield during early parities are less likely to be culled (Keown et al., 1976). Including all records on which female culling was based protects the evaluations from such bias if appropriate methods have been applied to account for repeatability and age adjustment (Henderson et al., 1959).
Because PTA1,2 and PTA1,2,3 were based on cumulative records from 2 and 3 parities, respectively, they, along with PTA1, were used to predict the individual parity contributions of daughters; i.e., PTA2 and PTA3. The following relationships were assumed:
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and
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where n1, n2, and n3 = number of bull daughters with first-, second-, and third-parity records, respectively. Thus,
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and
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For example, if all daughters had second lactations, then PTA2 would have been 2PTA1,2 PTA1. In such a case, parity contributions from PTA1 and PTA2 would have had equal influence on PTA1,2.
Relationships Among Bull PTA Across Parities
Correlations between the various tailored and official USDA-DHIA PTA for January 1999 were derived with a fixed effect for birth year of bull in the model. The SD of bull differences for milk yield between parities was compared with the SD of difference among bulls within parity to provide an indication of the importance of differences in maturity rate relative to the genetic opportunity when maturity differences were ignored.
The tailored bull PTA were examined to determine if bulls with daughter yields that either increased or decreased from first to second parity continued to show the same trend from second to third; i.e., was PTA1,2 generally intermediate to PTA1 and PTA1,2,3 if PTA1 and PTA1,2,3 indicated that daughters appeared to mature at a rate considerably different from normal. Regression of PTA1,2 PTA1 on PTA1,2,3 PTA1 should indicate how closely yield from second parity resembled yields from first vs. third parity. Likewise, regression of PTA2 PTA1 on PTA3 PTA1 should provide another indication of the relationship among parities. This examination should reveal whether adding a single effect for trend in maturity rate to the evaluation model could account for trends in yield from first to later parities (Guo et al., 2002) or whether separate model effects would be needed for each parity (Schaeffer et al., 2000) because bulls deviated substantially from a biological progression with age. A multitrait model was not investigated, and concurrent research by Wiggans and VanRaden (2004a,b) on a random regression approach indicated no improvement in predictability of genetic merit compared with current evaluation methods for US dairy cattle.
Bulls with
500 daughters were of particular interest in reviewing this maturity progression because their true transmitting abilities for individual-parity yields should be predicted with high precision. If bulls with highly accurate evaluations do not appear to deviate from a biological progression for maturity, any differences apparent among bull evaluations with lower accuracy also are not likely to result from real biological deviations.
Parity Effect on Stability of Sire Evaluations
Tailored milk evaluations were calculated for January 1996, 1997, and 1998 in addition to January 1999, so that stability of tailored and official USDA-DHIA evaluations could be compared across time. Annual evaluations included accumulated milk records of cows with a first calving date through December prior to the designated evaluation year. More uniformity within bulls in the mean number of lactations per daughter across time in the tailored genetic evaluations than in the official evaluations should produce more uniformity in the contribution of information coming from individual parities.
Correlations were calculated across years to determine how information from individual parities contributed to variation in bull evaluations. A birth date restriction was imposed (bulls born after 1984) to focus on bulls with considerable new information added between 1996 and 1999.
Indicators of evaluation stability across time were the SD of differences between the various milk evaluations as well as the correlations between them. The SD of difference of PTA1, PTA1,2, and PTA1,2,3 between years were compared with those of the official USDA-DHIA milk evaluations released in January or February of corresponding years. The official evaluations included information from available milk records through fifth parity.
| RESULTS AND DISCUSSION |
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10 daughters and 2796 bulls with
500 daughters that had evaluations for all 3 parities. The SD of the various PTA milk for bulls with
10 daughters were similar (456 to 469 kg) except that SD for PTA3 and PTAofficial were somewhat higher (510 and 501 kg). The SD for bulls with
500 daughters had a similar pattern but were 8 to 16% greater than for bulls with
10 daughters.
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10 or
500 daughters. The correlations were higher between PTA1 and PTA1,2 (0.961 for bulls with
10 daughters and 0.979 for bulls with
500 daughters) than between PTA1 and PTA1,2,3 (0.937 and 0.962) as expected, because the greater the separation between parities, the more the genetic correlation is expected to deviate from 1.0 (Strandberg, 1991). Those correlations were higher than between PTA1 and the individual-parity contributions of PTA2 or PTA3 (0.681 to 0.875), which was also expected because the first-parity records were not included as in PTA1,2 and PTA1,2,3. The PTAofficial had the highest correlations with PTA1,2,3 both for bulls with
10 daughters (0.970) and those with
500 daughters (0.993); both PTA included information from a high percentage of the same records.
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The coefficient for regression of the difference between PTA1,2 and PTA1 on the difference between PTA1,2,3 and PTA1 for bulls with
10 daughters was 0.71 with a standard error of 0.002 (Table 5
). The same regression coefficient for those bulls that had true transmitting ability predicted with higher precision (bulls with
500 daughters) was 0.72 ± 0.003. Those regression coefficients confirm that milk yield from second parity resembles yield from third parity more closely than yield from first parity; i.e., milk yield from second and third parities is influenced by more of the same genes than is yield from first and second parities. Most studies reviewed by Strandberg (1991) also reported higher genetic correlations between yields from second and third parities than between those from first and second parities. Regression coefficients based on individual-parity (PTA2 and PTA3) instead of cumulative-parity (PTA1,2 and PTA1,2,3) contributions increased from 0.37 ± 0.004 to 0.73 ± 0.008 for bulls with
10 to
500 daughters, respectively. This result was not expected. Differences observed for individual-parity contributions provided highly useful information for bulls with high reliabilities but may not do the same for bulls with few daughters.
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500 daughters and with large differences between PTA1 and PTA1,2,3. In contrast, when little difference existed between PTA1 and PTA1,2,3, PTA1,2 was usually outside the range of the other 2 but more frequently closer to PTA1,2,3 than to PTA1.
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10 daughters and the 211 bulls with
500 daughters that calved before each of those years. The longer the time between evaluation years, the lower the correlations. That relationship was expected because change in evaluations is a function of the increase in reliability; i.e., the amount of information added. Between the same year pairs, correlations generally were lower for official PTA (0.947 to 0.998) than for tailored PTA (0.970 to 0.999) regardless of the number of bull daughters; i.e., the tailored evaluations were more stable across time. However, for PTA3, correlations between the same year pairs were higher for official PTA of bulls with
10 daughters. That result suggests that differences in maturity rates of daughters may have been estimated well for bulls with many daughters, but apparent differences in maturity rate for bulls with few daughters may be attributable to residual environmental effects or random error. Correlations between PTA were lower between 1996 and 1997 than between 1997 and 1998 or between 1998 and 1999, most likely because reliabilities for the same bulls were higher in later years. Higher initial reliability was associated with smaller increases in reliability in subsequent years. When information from more than a single parity was included in the tailored PTA, correlations were higher across time.
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10 daughters, mean number of records per daughter in the PTA was 1.69 with an SD of 0.08 for PTA1,2 and 2.13 with an SD of 0.15 for PTA1,2,3. In contrast, official USDA evaluations had 2.04 records per daughter with an SD of 0.58. Similarly, for bulls with
500 daughters, mean number of records per daughter were 1.69 with an SD of 0.04 for PTA1,2, 2.12 with an SD of 0.08 for PTA1,2,3, and 1.78 with an SD of 0.45 for official USDA evaluations. Increased uniformity should help to produce more consistency in the proportion of information from various parities and thus more stability if genetic differences exist for maturity rate of daughters. Official PTA included information from up to 5 parities per daughter, whereas the tailored PTA included information from only 1, 2, or 3 parities. The confounding between number of parities with information included in the evaluation did not allow differentiation of contributions from fourth and fifth parities. Thus, the question of how many parities are needed to optimize genetic merit could not be resolved. Some of the greater variation in official PTA also could have resulted from differences in persistency, which would not have affected tailored PTA as those were based on complete lactations.
Cumulative-parity evaluations (PTA1,2 and PTA1,2,3) had higher correlations between the same year pairs than did evaluations that represented individual-parity contributions (PTA2 and PTA3). Not surprisingly, when more records were included, the results were more stable. Some additional variation in PTA2 and PTA3 may have developed because they were derived from cumulative-parity estimates and no effort was made to consider differences in numbers of contemporaries, DIM, or accuracy of herd testing information for all animals.
Table 8
gives another representation of the stability of relationships across time expressed as SD of differences in PTA. The outcome was much the same as shown in Table 7
: as the correlations increased, SD of PTA differences decreased. The more time between evaluations, the greater the increase in SD of PTA differences. As more parities were included in PTA, SD of differences declined slightly. For the same year pairs, official PTA had larger SD than did tailored evaluations. For example, for bulls with
10 daughters, SD of differences in PTA1, PTA1,2, or PTA1,2,3 between 1996 and 1999 were 69, 66, and 66 kg, respectively, whereas SD of official PTA was 91 kg. Even more strikingly, for bulls with
500 daughters, the corresponding SD of PTA differences were 36, 32, 32, and 80 kg; SD of official PTA differences were 2.2 to 2.5 times greater than for the 3 tailored PTA (i.e., variance was 5 to 6 times greater). Accounting for differences in maturity rate might eliminate most of the remaining changes in PTA for bulls with high reliability, but the same should not be expected for bulls with 10 to 50 daughters.
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| CONCLUSIONS |
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500 daughters were more stable across time; that is, they had <20% of the variance of official PTA differences. Nevertheless, any number of environmental effects could be associated with daughters of an individual bull so that bulls might appear to transmit differently for maturity rate than they actually do. Further research is needed to confirm that apparent differences among bulls in the maturity rate of daughters are genetic. A study is currently underway to determine how the same bulls with daughters in multiple countries compare based on progeny performance from various parities. If daughter maturity rate is confirmed to be genetic, modification of the evaluation model to account for that trait should improve stability and accuracy of evaluations. However, differences among results from preliminary studies at the Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory must be resolved before a modification to deal with maturity rate can be implemented in the USDA-DHIA evaluation model.
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS |
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Received for publication December 30, 2004. Accepted for publication May 31, 2005.
| REFERENCES |
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This article has been cited by other articles:
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H. D. Norman, J. R. Wright, R. L. Powell, P. M. VanRaden, F. Miglior, and G. de Jong Consistency of Maturity Rate for Milk Yield Across Countries and Generations J Dairy Sci, August 1, 2007; 90(8): 3937 - 3944. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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