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1 Department of Animal and Aquacultural Sciences, Agricultural University of Norway, P. O. Box 5025, N-1432 Ås, Norway
2 Department of Dairy Science, University of Wisconsin, Madison 53706
Corresponding author: B. Heringstad; e-mail: bjorg.heringstad{at}iha.nlh.no.
| ABSTRACT |
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Key Words: Bayesian method clinical mastitis genetic evaluation multivariate threshold model
Abbreviation key: CM = clinical mastitis, NRF = Norwegian Dairy Cattle
| INTRODUCTION |
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Chang et al. (2001, 2002) estimated genetic correlations between CM in eleven 30-d intervals of first lactation Norwegian Dairy Cattle (NRF) using a multivariate threshold model. The posterior means of these genetic correlations ranged between 0.13 and 0.55. Genetic correlations much lower than one suggest strongly that mastitis cannot be regarded as the same trait throughout lactation. However, their study was based on only 245 sires, so the genetic correlations could not be estimated precisely. Therefore, it is pertinent to re-estimate these correlations using a larger data set, as well as to expand the scope of the study to include later lactations.
Our objectives were to infer heritability and genetic correlations involving CM in different intervals of the first 3 lactations of NRF cows, to compare sire evaluations from these intervals, and to estimate genetic change for CM in the first 3 lactations. A Bayesian multivariate probit threshold model was developed and fitted for this purpose.
| MATERIALS AND METHODS |
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Average herd size is small in Norway, so to alleviate the well-known "extreme category problem" of the threshold model, herd years were grouped into herd-5-yr effects. The data were restricted to include only cows first calving in a herd-5-yr class with at least 10 first-lactation cows. The edited dataset had 372,227 first-lactation cows, of which 247,692 had a second lactation and 147,051 had a third lactation. A total of 25,033 herd-5-yr classes were represented in the data. The sire pedigree file had 2726 males, including the 2411 sires with daughters in the dataset.
For each cow, all cases of veterinary-treated CM in the first 3 lactations, from 30 d before first calving to culling, 300 d after third calving, or fourth calving, whichever occurred first, were included. Each lactation was divided into 4 intervals: from 30 d before calving to calving, the first 30 d of lactation, from d 31 to 120, and from d 121 to 300. Within each of these intervals, absence or presence of mastitis was scored as "0" or "1," respectively, based on whether the cow had at least one veterinary treatment of CM recorded in the interval. Culled cows were scored also in the interval in which they were culled, irrespectively of the number of days represented in the last interval. The overall mastitis frequencies in the total dataset were 20.6, 25.9, and 30.6% in the first, second, and third lactations, respectively, increasing from 1978 to 1995, and decreasing thereafter, as shown in Figure 1
. Mastitis frequencies for each lactation interval ranged between 3.3 and 13.0%, as given in Table 1
. About 33.5 and 60.5% of the cows were culled after 1 and 2 lactations, respectively, and the cumulative culling rate is shown in Table 1
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In matrix notation, the model fitted can be written as:
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where
is a vector of unobserved liabilities;
The order of
was
where nj is the number of cows with records in lactation j (j = 1, 2, 3). If a cow was culled before the end of lactation, "missing liabilities" was augmented. Further, ß included month x year of calving and age of calving (first-lactation cows) or calving interval (second and third lactation) effects. Month x year of first-calving effects were in 240 classes from September 1978 through September 1998, whereas effects of month x year of second and third calving were in 229 and 217 classes, respectively. Age at first calving and calving interval had 15 and 9 levels, respectively. The order of h and s was 12 x number of sires (2411) and 12 x number of herd-5-yr classes (25,033), respectively. Residuals were assumed to be correlated within lactation but independent between lactations, and assumed to follow the multivariate normal distribution e ~N(0,R0
I) where
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is the 12 x 12 residual (co)variance matrix. All residual variances were set equal to 1.
Bayesian Analysis
A Bayesian approach employing MCMC methods in the implementation (Sorensen and Gianola, 2002), as applied by Chang et al. (2002), was used.
Prior distributions.
Independent proper uniform priors were assumed for each of the elements of ß:
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Hyper-parameters values were ßmin = 99 and ßmax = 99. The following multivariate normal prior distribution was assigned to the herd-5-yr effects:
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where H0 = {hi,j}, i,j = 1, 2,....,12, is the 12 x 12 (co)variance matrix between herd-5-yr effects. The following multivariate normal prior distribution was assumed for the sire transmitting abilities:
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where G0 = {gi,j}, i,j = 1, 2,...., 12, is the 12 x 12 (co)variance matrix between sire transmitting abilities, and A is the matrix of additive relationships between sires. Inverse Wishart prior distributions were used for the matrices H0 and G0:
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where
h and
g are the degrees of freedom parameters, and Vh and Vg are scale matrices. Each of the nonzero covariance elements of R0 were assigned bounded uniform priors:
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Here ri,j is the residual covariance (correlation) between interval i and j.
The joint prior density of all unknown parameters is given by:
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Posterior distributions.
The joint posterior density of all the unknowns is proportional to the product of the joint prior density multiplied by the conditional density of the observations, given the parameters. Draws from the posterior distribution of the parameters were obtained using a Gibbs sampler with data augmentation (Sorensen et al., 1995). For cows that did not have data for all intervals within a lactation, "missing liabilities" were included in the augmented posterior distribution. After augmentation with the liabilities, the fully conditional distributions of all parameters, except those of the correlations in R0, can be derived in closed form, as described by Sorensen et al. (1995) and Sorensen and Gianola (2002). Chang et al. (2002) give details of the Gibbs sampling scheme applied. Since the fully conditional distribution of R0 does not have a closed form (because all residual variances are equal to 1), a random walk Metropolis-Hasting algorithm was used to sample the residual correlations, as described by Chang et al. (2002).
Convergence diagnostics.
Convergence was assessed following Raftery and Lewis (1992) and using the first 20,000 iterations of the Gibbs chain. Using the diagnostics plus visual inspections of trace plots, it was decided to run a total chain length of 100,000 iterations after a burn-in of 10,000 iterations.
Sire Evaluations and Genetic Change
Genetic evaluations (posterior means) of sire effects were computed in the liability scale. These posterior means were transformed from the underlying liability scale to the probability (0 to 1) scale using:
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where pi,j is the probability of CM in interval i of an infinite number of daughters of sire j,
(.) is the standard normal distribution function, µ is the probit corresponding to the mean liability of CM in interval i, and
is the posterior mean of liability to CM in interval i for sire j.
Genetic change was evaluated by plotting average sire posterior means against birth year of daughters, and annual genetic change was estimated from the slope of the corresponding linear regression. All daughters of the 2411 siresi.e., a total of 1.6 million first lactation cowswere used for estimation of genetic change. Sires were weighted according to their number of daughters, so that this measure reflects sire usage as well as genetic change in the NRF population.
| RESULTS AND DISCUSSION |
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Heritability estimates were fairly similar in all three lactations (Table 2
). Pösö and Mäntysaari (1996) found a lower heritability of mastitis in first lactation (0.025) than in second and third lactations (0.046 and 0.041), whereas Nielsen et al. (1997) found no evidence of differences in heritability of mastitis between lactations. However, both studies used linear models in the analysis, which makes heritability estimates frequency dependent, so the results cannot be compared directly.
Table 2
shows posterior means of the genetic correlations between liability to CM in different intervals, and the values ranged from 0.24 (intervals 1 and 12) to 0.73 (intervals 1 and 2), with posterior standard deviations between 0.03 and 0.09. The posterior distributions of genetic correlations between selected intervals are given in Figure 3
. Within lactation, genetic correlations tended to be higher for adjacent than for nonadjacent intervals, and genetic correlations between intervals in different lactations tended to be higher for intervals at the same stage of lactation (Table 2
). In particular, the genetic correlations tended to be stronger for the pairs of periods (2, 6), (2, 10), and (6, 10)i.e., the periods with the highest mastitis frequency within each of the lactations.
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Estimates of genetic correlations between lactations (Table 2
) were lower than the estimates of Pösö and Mäntysaari (1996) and Nielsen et al. (1997). Pösö and Mäntysaari (1996) found genetic correlations ranging from 0.67 to 0.90 between mastitis in the first 3 lactations. Nielsen et al. (1997) found correlations of 0.96, 0.95, and 0.76 between first and second lactation, for Red Danish, Danish Friesian, and Danish Jersey, respectively; between first and third lactations, the estimates were 0.92, 0.86, and 0.65, and between second and third lactations, the correlations were 1.0, 0.98, and 0.99 for the 3 breeds.
Posterior means of residual correlations ranged from 0.08 to 0.17 for adjacent intervals, and between 0.01 and 0.03 for nonadjacent intervals (Table 3
). The posterior distributions of the residual correlations between the 4 intervals of first lactation are shown in Figure 4
. The corresponding distributions for second and third lactations were similar. For many nonadjacent intervals, the distribution includes zero. Our results suggest that residuals between nonadjacent intervals can be assumed to be uncorrelated, whereas residuals between adjacent intervals should be regarded as having a dependency structure. Here, zero residual correlations between lactations were assumed. However, other structures of the residual (co)variance matrix could be examined.
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Rank correlations between posterior means of sire transmitting abilities in the 12 intervals ranged from 0.48 to 0.91 (Table 4
). Within lactation, rank correlations were higher between adjacent than between non-adjacent intervals. Rank correlations between intervals in different lactations tended to be higher for intervals at the same stage of lactation. Table 5
shows how the top 10 sires from interval 2 ranked for the other 11 intervals. For some sires (e.g., the sire ranked second in interval 2), there was reasonably good agreement between rankings in different intervals. On the other hand, the sire ranked as third in interval 2 was ranked as number 5 in the first interval, but took between the 129 and 1095 positions in the remaining 10 intervals. This illustrates that selection of sires depends on the number of intervals and lactations included in genetic evaluation.
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Annual genetic changes for the 12 traits are given in Table 6
. For the total time period (cows born from 1976 to 1996), annual genetic change varied between 0.065 (interval 2) and 0.012 (interval 8) %-points CM. For cows born after 1985, the annual genetic change for the 12 traits was estimated to be between 0.04 and 0.14%-points CM (Table 6
). Annual genetic change was largest (in absolute value) in intervals 2, 6, and 10, and smallest in intervals 5 and 9. In an univariate threshold model analysis of mastitis in first lactation (15 to 120 d after first calving), Heringstad et al. (2003a) found an annual genetic change of 0.08%-points CM for cows born from 1976 to 1990, and 0.27%-points CM for cows born after 1989. In the present study, lactations were divided into 4 intervals, so genetic change in each interval was expected to be smaller than in Heringstad et al. (2003a).
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As opposed to cross-sectional analyses, where CM is treated as a single binary trait, the multivariate models, with lactations divided into intervals, take both multiple CM episodes and time aspects into account. Also, a possible sampling bias due to culling of cows can be reduced in such models as "incomplete lactations," and records in progress can be included in the analyses.
Here we chose to divide lactations into 4 intervals, with shorter intervals around calving and longer intervals later in lactation. This was based on Chang (2002), who found that models with 4 and 11 intervals had good agreement with respect to sire ranking. Longer and fewer intervals may obscure variation between animals, whereas shorter and more intervals require more computational time, since this leads to more records per animal and to a more highly parameterized model.
| CONCLUSIONS |
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Genetic correlations much lower than 1 indicate that mastitis cannot be regarded as the same trait in different parts of lactation or in different lactations. This implies that a multivariate threshold model treating mastitis in different stages of lactation as different traits may be required for genetic evaluation.
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS |
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Received for publication March 18, 2004. Accepted for publication April 21, 2004.
| REFERENCES |
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