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* Department of Dairy and Animal Science and
Department of Agricultural Economics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park 16802
Corresponding author: P. Tozer; e-mail: ptozer{at}psu.edu.
| ABSTRACT |
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Key Words: Individual mate selection multiple-objective integer programming producer objectives
Abbreviation key: AHP = Analytic hierarchy process, EPIC = expected progeny inbreeding coefficient, EPNM = expected progeny net merit, MOP = multiple-objective programming, NM = net merit
| INTRODUCTION |
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Inbreeding in dairy cattle has direct and indirect economic consequences for a dairy producer, such as reduced milk and milk component yields, lower reproduction rates, and reduced survival of offspring, (Wiggans et al., 1995; Thompson et al., 2000). However, the perception of the impacts of inbreeding could vary across breeders depending on factors within the breeders herd, such as the level of inbreeding and the goals and values of the dairy producer.
It may also be reasonably assumed that individual producers may have different goals in their breeding programs when compared to their peers. This may be due to many factors including psychological and sociological factors that are not easily measured. Rogers (1990) and Nash and Rogers (1996) took these factors into account when selecting a range of risk aversion factors to include in the portfolio analysis research these researchers undertook. Stokes and Tozer (2002) surveyed a group of academic professionals and breeding company representatives to determine the importance of three breeding goals: maximization of net merit (NM), minimization of the inbreeding coefficients of the progeny from a mating, and minimization of semen expenditure. The results of this survey demonstrated that perceptions of the importance of different goals vary across individuals as well as groups.
Stokes and Tozer (2002) and Tozer and Stokes (2002) utilized multiple-objective programming (MOP) to select a portfolio of sires for a hypothetical dairy producer. The weights used by Tozer and Stokes (2001) were arbitrarily selected by the researchers and were not based on any producer-provided information. Stokes and Tozer (2002) applied weights supplied by academics or breeding company representatives in the same hypothetical situation. In this research, Stokes and Tozer (2002) grouped the results and used aggregated data to estimate weights and did not consider the impact that individual weights would have on the sires selected.
Multiple-objective programming allows a decision maker to examine the tradeoffs between competing objectives (Ballestero and Romero, 1998). Also, MOP does not require explicit imposition of constraints that may limit the set of bulls from which a producer can choose (Rogers 1990). MOP implicitly constrains the feasible set through the weights assigned to each objective. Hence, MOP is less restrictive in the set of potential candidates for inclusion in the portfolio of sires that can achieve the decision-makers goals.
Much previous research on selection of mates has also been a form of random mating (i.e., where the selection of particular mates is not important so long as all potential females are bred and the objectives of the breeding program are achieved) (Shanks and Freeman 1979; McGilliard and Clay 1983a, 1983b; Tozer and Stokes 2001). The problem with individual mate selection is the complexity of the problem and the degree of computing power required in allocating individual sires to females and the criteria used to select mating pairs.
The objectives of the research reported here are: 1) to determine a set of absolute and relative rankings from individual producers with regard to maximizing NM, minimizing the inbreeding of the offspring from a mating, and minimizing the total expenditure on semen; 2) to estimate the consistency of the weights provided; and 3) to examine the impact that individual producer-assigned weights has on the portfolio of sires selected for breeding to each female in the herd. In the context of this research, inbreeding is defined as the expected level of inbreeding of the progeny from mating a particular sire to a particular cow.
| MATERIALS AND METHODS |
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Multiple Objective Breeding Model
Tozer and Stokes (2001) and Stokes and Tozer (2002) provide a comprehensive discussion of the formulation of the integer multiple-objective breeding problem. Therefore, only a brief summary of the formulation will be presented here. Various formulations of MOP depend on the degree of linearity or nonlinearity the user specifies. Stokes and Tozer (2002) show that in the sire selection problem there is very little difference between MOP formulations; hence, the following discussion will focus on the MINIMAX model. In the case of the MINIMAX model, the objective is to minimize the maximum distance,
, from the ideal values generated from the single-objective models normalized by the difference between the ideal and anti-ideal values (Ignizio, 1982).
The MINIMAX formulation is as follows:
![]() | [1] |
Subject to:
![]() | [2] |
![]() | [3] |
![]() | [4] |
x
F(x)
Equations 2, 3, and 4![]()
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are distance equations that constrain the distance from an ideal solution to that found in the multiple-objective solution weighted by producer-assigned weights, wj, where j = N, I, C, (N = net merit, I = inbreeding, C = semen cost). The ideal, j* = N, I, C, and anti-ideal values, j– = N, I, C, are determined by the solution of single-objective models that optimize each of the individual objectives. The final constraint ensures that the vector of optimal values, x, needs to be within the feasible set F(x). The anti-ideal values are the maximal (minimal) value of the objective for a minimization (maximization) problem generated by the solutions for other objectives. These values measure the distance from the single-objective solution to the solution generated in the multiple-objective model and provide upper and lower bounds for the search algorithm.
Given the above, farm-level information is required. The dairy farmer has n = 76 cows, all of which are to be bred, and it is assumed that it requires, on average, two inseminations per conception. The number of bulls available is 49; these are the top bulls ranked in the Production Type Index from the American Jersey Cattle Association for which semen price, expected progeny NM (EPNM), and expected progeny inbreeding coefficients (EPIC) were available. The following three equations are accounting equations that are used to calculate the average EPNM, average EPIC, and total semen cost that are used in equations 2, 3, and 4![]()
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Where x(i, j) is a binary variable that represents the breeding of cow i to bull j. Bull(j) is a general integer variable representing the number of units of semen to use from bull j, and P(j) is the cost per unit of semen from bull j. The EPNM(i, j) is calculated as the average of both potential parents reported NM. The expected progeny inbreeding coefficient, EPIC(i, j), is calculated as the level of inbreeding of the progeny from each potential mating based on the relationships of 16 previous generations from both the sires and dams sides. The American Jersey Cattle Association provided the EPNM(i, j) and EPIC(i, j) based on the August 2001 Jersey sire summary.
One constraint imposed on the breeding formulation is a limit on the usage of any one bull to increase the potential genetic diversity within the herd.1 This limit is set at a maximum of 20%, meaning that of all cows within the herd, only a maximum of 20% can be mated to any one bull as specified in equation 8
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One final constraint, necessary for completeness of the model is that cow (i) can only be bred once, so summing over all bulls gives:
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The ideal and anti-ideal values for each objective were estimated from single-objective integer programming models constrained by equations 8 and 9![]()
. Equations 5 to 7![]()
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were utilized in the same manner as in the multiple-objective models, as accounting equations. The three single-objective models for maximizing average EPNM; minimizing inbreeding or minimizing semen cost are:
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or
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or
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Subject to:
![]() | [10] |
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All models were estimated as integer programming models using LINGO version 7 (Schrage 2001) on a desktop personal computer. LINGO can be used in this instance as it has linear and integer programming capabilities.
| RESULTS AND DISCUSSION |
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Table 2
also shows the effect of slight differences in rankings on the weights assigned to each objective. Looking at Group 1 and producers 7, 8, and 22, the raw weights given to the objectives differ across these three producers, as they perceive the importance of each objective slightly differently. Even a slight difference in raw weights can alter the adjusted weights. Producers 7 and 8 differ only on the weight assigned to the second objective; yet the adjusted weights show that for producer 8 this objective is weighted twice as high as for producer 7. Further comparisons of the impact of weights will be provided later when examination of the results of the multiple-objective models are presented.
The results of the AHP show that dairy producers do rank objectives differently and that the ordering and raw weights assigned to these rankings do have a significant influence on the final adjusted weights. Another factor that arises from the AHP is that a slight change in raw weights can affect the adjusted weights when comparing across producers.
Single-Objective Integer Models
The results of the single-objective integer models are presented in Table 3
. The results presented in this table summarize the individual mates selected for each cow in the herd, due to the space required to present the individual data. Beginning with the model that maximizes EPNM for the individual matings, as expected, the model selected the top six bulls ranked on the basis of NM. The average EPNM of the offspring is $313, average EPIC is 10.57%, and semen cost is $41 per conception. These results also show that there is always the potential for multiple optima. For example, in this case a multiple optima occurs because the fifth and sixth ranked sires have the same EPNM value. Therefore, it is possible that any combination of these two bulls can occur in the optimal solution, as the model does not have a secondary criterion to rank the bulls. Next, considering the model that minimizes the expected inbreeding coefficients of the progeny from each breeding, the EPNM of the offspring from this model is $266, EPIC is 5.77%, and semen cost is $34. Finally, the model that minimizes semen expenditure yields an EPNM of $245, EPIC of 9.84%, and average semen cost of $20 per conception.
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Multiple-Objective Integer Models
Utilizing the weights generated from the AHP and the solutions from the single objective models, 10 multiple-objective integer programming models were constructed to select the optimal sire portfolio for each producer. The results from these models are also shown in Table 3
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The first group of producers, those that selected maximizing NM as the primary objective and minimizing inbreeding as the second objective, are producers 4, 7, 8, and 22 in Table 3
. The portfolio selected for producer 4 is nearly identical to that of the single-objective model for EPNM. This producer ranks maximizing EPNM highly and the other two objectives lower. The sires selected here again demonstrate the multiple optima discussed earlier. The portfolio here is slightly different to the single-objective results due to the algorithm searching in a slightly different route to achieve the optima.
The groups of sires selected for the remaining three producers in this cluster yield the same EPNM, yet the average EPIC and semen cost per conception are slightly different from each other. These differences are due to the weights placed on each objective by the individual producers. The results also show that for a small reduction in EPNM ($7), the average EPIC is reduced by 1.85 to 3.58%, and semen costs are reduced by $3 to $6, when compared to the EPNM maximizing single-objective model.
The set of sires selected for this group of producers reflects the weights assigned to the objectives. For example, sire 2, the highest cost sire, is used very minimally, and other sires, such as sire 8, with lower NM and semen costs are included. This would imply that sire 8, as well as having a lower semen cost, has a lower average EPIC compared to sire 2. This implication is supported by the results that the average EPIC for sire 2 was 10.2%, while the average EPIC for sire 8 was 5.7%. Also, for producers 8 and 22, where semen cost is not weighted as highly compared to producer 7, sire 5 is used to the limit allowed or close to the limit. Producer 8 includes 11 units of sire 15 in the portfolio, implying that this sire has a lower average EPIC than other sires not included, as this producer weights minimizing inbreeding higher than the other producers in this group. Again, this implication is supported by the results. The EPIC for sire 15, for this producers weights, was 5.4%.
Producers from group 3, those that ranked minimizing inbreeding first and maximizing NM second, had very diverse optimal portfolios with as many as 18 sires included in some portfolios. Beginning with producer 2, it is possible to see that the group of sires selected for this producer closely resembles that of producer 22 from group 1. This occurs because of the equivalent weights placed on the first two objectives by this producer. The sires selected for producers 13 and 14 reflect the diverse genetic makeup of the herd used in this case study and the requirements that the sires selected to breed to particular cows reduce the average EPIC as opposed to increasing the EPNM. These results again demonstrate the magnitude of the tradeoffs between objectives depends on the weights placed on the individual objectives. For example, producer 13 weighted minimizing inbreeding the highest of the four producers in this group, hence the average EPIC for this producer is lowest of the four, but then the EPNM is also the lowest. Whereas, producers 2 and 20 (who have similar weights) have higher EPNM and higher average EPIC compared to producer 13.
The final two producers, 16 and 19, were in the minority that ranked semen expenditure first or second and were consistent in their rankings. Producer 16 ranked minimizing inbreeding first and minimizing semen cost second and this ranking is reflected in the resultant portfolio. The average EPIC and EPNM for this producer is relatively low, but comparable with some producers from group three. However, semen cost is the second lowest of all multiple objective models. The sires selected in this portfolio are similar to those of producer 14, but the numbers of matings for each sire is different reflecting the reversal of the rankings of EPNM and semen cost, hence this producer prefers sires with lower semen cost rather than high EPNM.
Producer 19 was the only one to rank semen cost as the primary objective. Because of the rankings and weights applied to these rankings the portfolio selected for this producer is very different compared with most of the multiple-objective sire packages. Typically, mid-range NM sires with relatively lower semen prices, compared to the EPNM single objective models, were selected, again demonstrating the tradeoffs between objectives when multiple objectives are included in the decision model. The sire with the lowest semen price was included as expected, however, most other sires with low semen cost, i.e., $10 to $15 per unit, were not included indicating that the tradeoff between the EPNM and semen cost objectives were too high to include these sires in the optimal portfolio and, therefore, sires with higher semen costs and higher EPNM were chosen.
| CONCLUSIONS |
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In designing the survey the only objectives were to gain information regarding the ranking of the three objectives of interest; net merit, inbreeding, and semen cost, and the relative importance of these objectives. Other potential objectives in the breeding program, such as selection for nonproductive traits, were not addressed, and information was not solicited from producers regarding these types of objectives. The survey could have been designed to address this problem; however, a limitation would still be required on the number of potential objectives to allow for useful information to be collected as some of these objectives, particularly nonproductive traits, are not easily quantifiable. The AHP and multiple-objective programming could also be used to analyze risk preferences within the sire selection problem as has been suggested in other decision problems by Ballestero (2001).
One final point to note is that the results of the research are contingent on the set of available sires. In this research, only the top 50 sires ranked by PTI were utilized, and other sires with lower inbreeding values were not included in the set of potential sires (American Jersey Cattle Association, 2002). While this may not affect every portfolio selected, there may be some, particularly those that weighted inbreeding more heavily, that could change if other sires with lower inbreeding values were in the set of potential mates.
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS |
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| FOOTNOTES |
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Received for publication January 18, 2002. Accepted for publication March 28, 2002.
| REFERENCES |
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This article has been cited by other articles:
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M. B. McConnel and D. T. Galligan The Use of Integer Programming to Select Bulls Across Breeding Companies with Volume Price Discounts J Dairy Sci, October 1, 2004; 87(10): 3542 - 3549. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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