Phenotypic Trends in Incidence of Stillbirth for Holsteins in the United States

¹ Department of Animal Science, Iowa State University, Ames 50011-3150
² Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames 50011-3150
³ Department of Animal Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853
⁴ National Association of Animal Breeders, Columbia, MO 65205

The objectives for this study were to determine 1) if there was a trend in stillbirths for the U.S. Holstein population, 2) if stillbirths are the same trait in primiparous and multiparous cows, and 3) what was the role of dystocia in stillbirths. A sample of 666,341 births from the MidStates Dairy Records Processing Center and the National Association of Animal Breeders was used to examine the influence of sire, herd, year, season, sex of calf, parity of dam, calving ease, and gestation length on the survival of the calf. Parity was scored as an ordered variable (1, 2, 3+). Calving ease was scored on a scale of 1 (no assistance) to 3+ (needed assistance). An increasing trend in stillbirths was found in primiparous and multiparous cows. The percentage of stillborn calves in primiparous cows increased from 9.5 in 1985 to 13.2 in 1996. Stillbirths in multiparous cows increased from 5.0 to 6.6% from 1985 to 1996. Variation about the trend was greater in primiparous cows than in multiparous cows. Dystocia was a major determinant of stillbirth incidence, but the association was stronger in primiparous cows. Sex of calf had different associations with stillbirth incidence in primiparous and multiparous cows. Gestation length and season of birth also had significant associations with stillbirth incidence. Logistic regression models with fixed and random effects were fit to the data to preserve the binary nature of the stillbirth response. The expected probability of stillbirths for an average herd and sire was 10% for primiparous cows and 5% for multiparous cows. Replacement of stillborn calves is a substantial cost to the dairy industry at more than $125.3 million per year. Because of the increasing incidence of stillbirths, these costs have increased by $75.9 million from 1985 to 1996.

Key Words: Holstein • logistic regression • phenotypic trends • stillbirth

Submitted on April 28, 2000
Accepted on September 6, 2000

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