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1 Section of Epidemiology, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853
2 Institut de la Recherche Agronomique, Station de Génétique Quantitative et Appliquée, 78352 Jouy-en Josas, France
The effect of seven diseases on culling was measured in 7523 Holstein cows in New York State. The cows were from 14 herds and had calved between January 1, 1994 and December 31, 1994; all cows were followed until September 30, 1995. Survival analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazards model to incorporate time-dependent covariates for diseases. Different intervals representing stages of lactation were considered for effects of the diseases. Five models were fitted to test how milk yield and conception status modified the effect of diseases on culling. Covariates in the models included parity, calving season, and time-dependent covariates measuring diseases, milk yield of the current lactation, and conception status. Data were stratified by herd. The seven diseases and lactational risks under consideration were milk fever (0.9%), retained placenta (9.5%), displaced abomasum (5.3%), ketosis (5.0%), metritis (4.2%), ovarian cysts (10.6%), and mastitis (14.5%). Older cows were at a much higher risk of being culled. Calving season had no effect on culling. Higher milk yield was protective against culling. Once a cow had conceived again, her risk of culling dropped sharply. In all models, mastitis was an important risk factor throughout lactation. Milk fever, retained placenta, displaced abomasum, ketosis, and ovarian cysts also significantly affected culling at different stages of lactation. Metritis had no effect on culling. The magnitude of the effects of the diseases decreased, but remained important, when milk yield and conception status were included as covariates. These results indicated that diseases have an important impact on the actual decision to cull and the timing of culling. Parity, milk yield, and conception status are also important factors in culling decisions.
Key Words: time-dependent covariates • survival analysis • disease • culling
Submitted on May 23, 1997
Accepted on October 15, 1997
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