A Diagnostic and Prognostic Tool for Epidemiologic and Economic Analyses of Dairy Herd Health Management

¹ National Institute of Animal Science, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark
² Danish Informatics Network in the Agricultural Sciences, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark
³ New York State College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853

A computer program framework was established to enable a dairy herd production consultant to perform whole-herd analysis. The diagnostic process was an extensive data analysis 1) to derive key parameters related to production, reproductive, and health and 2) to produce input to a prognostic process. The prognostic process synthesized the obtained information into short- or long-term prognoses for the herd through a complex herd simulation model. Site specificity of parameter estimation and forecasting and explorability of assumptions and results were major characteristics of the approach. A user acceptance problem related to the simulation was addressed through a simultaneous process of development and validation during the introduction of the program framework into veterinary practices. The generally slow adoption of herd simulation models in extension work could be due to lack of credibility of the models. A major barrier to adoption of the current whole-herd approach may be the considerable time required to understand and use the tools properly. An example of a simulation experimental based on data from a New York dairy farm was provided, and the interpretation and practical applications of such simulations were discussed.

Key Words: extension • simulation • systems analysis • validation

Submitted on December 20, 1993
Accepted on October 14, 1994

This article has been cited by other articles:

				E. Kristensen, S. Ostergaard, M. A. Krogh, and C. Enevoldsen Technical Indicators of Financial Performance in the Dairy Herd J Dairy Sci, February 1, 2008; 91(2): 620 - 631. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				C. Meadows, P. J. Rajala-Schultz, and G. S. Frazer A Spreadsheet-Based Model Demonstrating the Nonuniform Economic Effects of Varying Reproductive Performance in Ohio Dairy Herds J Dairy Sci, March 1, 2005; 88(3): 1244 - 1254. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]