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Journal of Dairy Science Vol. 75 No. 11 2984-2989
© 1992 by American Dairy Science Association ®
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Lactation Curve Estimation for Use in Economic Optimization Models in the Dairy Industry

Brian S. Freeze 1 and Timothy J. Richards 2

1 Livestock Sciences Section, Agriculture Canada Research Station, Lethbridge, AB, Canada T1J 4B1
2 Food Research Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-6084

Monthly data on completed lactations were employed to estimate a three-stage least squares lactation curve model for milk production, milk fat content, milk protein content, and body weight change in lactating Holstein cattle. In comparison with previous work on the lactation curve, our study employed an augmented incomplete gamma model of the lactation curve, a simultaneous rather than single equation estimation technique, monthly rather than daily or weekly observations, and a pragmatic treatment of the genetic background of individual cows using sire proof data. In addition to considering genetic and dietary effects on the lactation curve, the model isolates the seasonal effect of calving date and current production month as well as the age of the cow. By allowing for the simultaneous explanation of various measures of cow performance, the model accommodates formulation of diets tailored for individuals cows or group of cows and can be used in profit-maximizing mathematical programming models. Diet, production, and body weight changes are determined simultaneously and are not independent of one another.

Key Words: lactation curve • dairy industry • modeling • simultaneous equations

Submitted on April 28, 1992
Accepted on July 10, 1992




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Copyright © 1992 by the American Dairy Science Association ®.