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Population Dynamics of Bulk Milk Somatic Cell Counts

College of Veterinary Medicine, The Netherlands

The population dynamics for bulk milk SCC in 27,000 Dutch dairy farms was studied over 6 yr; SCC declined markedly in 1984 and 1985. This coincided with the introduction of the quota system in the European Community. The CV of SCC was .36, ranging from .15 to .89. Month of year had a significant effect on SCC with the highest SCC in October and the lowest in April. The dynamics of the annual SCC were modeled with a state transition model. Farmers managing herds with a fairly low SCC (<450,000) had a reasonable chance to remain in these states. Herds with a higher annual SCC were much more variable. The model simulated, the potential reactions of the farmers to the decrease of the SCC limit from 750,000 to 500,000 starting January 1, 1989. The simulations showed a further decrease in mean annual SCC, although the number of farms in the category with a very low SCC (<150,000) is not likely to increase. In all simulations an increased number of farmers will receive a penalty due to the more strict regulations of the European Community.

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