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Potential Impact of the Growth Hormone and Other Technology on the United States Dairy Industry by the Year 2000

Research and Development Department, Agway Inc., Syracuse, NY 13221

ABSTRACT

The United States dairy industry is projected to go through a major transition by the 2000 with some regions experiencing more change than others. Population growth plus medical discoveries favorable to certain dairy products combined with strengthened marketing programs could increase consumption of milk equivalent from the present 66.3 to 72.1 million metric tons by the yr 2000.

Ongoing genetic, feeding, and management improvements could raise average milk production per cow from the 1984 level of 5680 kg to 7425 kg by 2000. If growth hormone biotechnology is adopted, average production per cow could reach 9281 kg by the 21st century. This could reduce US dairy cow numbers 30% from the present 11.1 million to 7.8 million by the yr 2000. Likewise, the dairy industry and others could expect approximately 92,500 fewer commercial dairy farms, a decrease of 51%. This would mean 195,000 fewer employees and 3.6 to 4.1 million fewer crop hectares would be required. A transition of this magnitude will require indepth planning by legislators, policy makers, university teaching, research, and extension personnel, agribusiness, industry representatives, and dairy producers to cope with the necessary adjustments.