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Dairy Herd Improvement Association Yearly Herd Averages. II. Predicting Income over Feed Cost

Animal Husbandry Research Division, USDA, Beltsville, Maryland

ABSTRACT

A total of 8,048 yearly herd average records from 23 states were studied to determine the value of factors measured in Dairy Herd Improvement Associations in predicting income over feed cost as estimated from data reported. The variables studied were: milk yield, milk price, concentrates fed, price of concentrates, per cent days in milk, succulent forage, dry forage, days on pasture, fat per cent, and herd size.

The complete model including all ten variables accounted for 94.4% of the variation in income over feed cost. Milk, milk price, concentrates, and grain price together accounted for 91% of the variance. The measurement of succulent forage, dry forage, and pasture reduced the variance in income over feed cost by only 3–4%. It is doubtful that forage estimates as presently obtained justify the time and expense required to collect them.

When milk yield was ignored, the partial regressions of income over feed cost on concentrates and pasture were positive, but the regression on dry forage was negative.